Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow!

By Gracie Hart
Review Staff Writer

Published: November 20, 2008

Children may want to stock up on carrots and lumps of coal this winter because the chances of being able to build a snowman may be greater than in the past.
The 2008-2009 Farmer’s Almanac is predicting below normal winter temperatures and above average snowfall for the area this winter with the biggest snowstorm predicted in January.  The almanac also predicts frequent snowfall in December and mid-February.  Last year, the almanac, which uses a combination of solar science, climatology and meteorology for making their predictions, was 90 percent accurate in predicting more or less precipitation than the previous winter with their temperature predictions being within one degree of actual temperatures.
According to the Farmer’s Almanac, the area may even have snow in time for Thanksgiving.
Dave Starner, Superintendent of the Northern Piedmont Agricultural Research Station, recently looked at winter weather data for Orange County from the past 62 winters, 1946 to 2008.  He found that, while the average date of the first flakes falling in the county is Dec. 4, there is a 42 percent chance of snow before December.  That percentage will increase since some flurries fell within the county early Tuesday. 
Before anyone can hope to play in the white stuff, the conditions have to be just right.  According to the book, Wet Weather, snow comes from a cold cloud process, which incidentally, can occur even in summer.  Part or all of a cloud must have a temperature lower than 32 degrees Fahrenheit before snow can form, which can occur at any time of the year if a cloud is high enough in the atmosphere where the air is colder.  Within the cold cloud, ice crystals form and join together to become snowflakes.  When the flakes become too heavy, they fall to the ground.  If the temperature near the ground is warm, the flakes melt and turn into rain.  If the temperature near the ground is cold, the flakes remain frozen and we have snow.
However, if the flakes pass through warm air before meeting the cold air, they will melt and refreeze causing sleet.  Freezing rain is caused by flakes that have melted on their way down but refreeze once they come into contact with the cold ground.
“It is a question of rain or snow when you go to bed with the temperature at 32 degrees,“ Starner said.  “You could wake up with 14 inches of snow and when you went to bed they had predicted little snow.“
According to Starner, the county gets big wet snows because of how the storms travel.  Moist tropical air from the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian oceans runs up against cold, dry air from the north and south poles causing fronts, clouds and storms to form.  Heavy snow comes from cold fronts while deep snow comes from warm fronts.
“The average winter snowfall is 19.8 inches,“ Starner said.  “The most snowfall was 57 inches in 1995-96.“
According to Starner, the most snow in one day, 18 inches, fell March 6, 1962. The average date for the first snowfall of one inch or more is Dec. 22.
Depending on the conditions, students may get out of school as a result of winter weather.
According to Orange County Public Schools Assistant Superintendent of Human Resources and Operations Roy Walton, the road conditions and the temperature make the difference between having and not having school due to weather.
“If the temperature is going to be below freezing for a sustained period of time and we are expecting precipitation, then it would be a good call to close or delay opening,“ he said.  “If snow is already falling and the temperature is not expected to rise, it would be a good idea to close schools.“
The school calendar has built-in days to make-up for any time lost due to winter weather.  Everything is based on hours and technically, the school days are already longer than they are required to be by the state.  Schools are only required to have 180 days of instruction and the Orange County school calendar calls for 181 days.  Because of this, schools will not have to make up the first or second day that they miss because of weather.  After that, they must make up every other missed day.  Days where schools are open for at least an hour count as full days and do not need to be made up. 
Whether school ends up being closed or not, buses are being prepared for winter travel.
According to Justin Sarver, director of transportation, mechanics service each bus every 30 operating days per Department of Education regulations, which helps monitor problems that commonly surface in winter months such as low fluids and adequate tire traction.  Drivers are also required to perform pre-trip inspections before every trip to ensure that the bus is in proper operating condition.
“The drivers have to let the buses warm up a few minutes before beginning their run to make sure that they are properly defrosted and that all safety equipment is functioning properly such as the stop sign and crossing gate,“ he said.  “Drivers may also be required to plug-in electric engine block heaters to ensure that the buses will start as it gets colder.“
According to Sarver, there is also a technician on-site from 6 a.m. to 5 p.m. to address any mechanical problems that arise.
Snow affects everyone and everything, regardless of age and not always in good ways.  According to Starner, the average number of days with snow on the ground in the county is 21 days.  This can make travel difficult and cause electricity, telephone lines and gas supply to fail.  People should be prepared in case any of these things should happen.
The Virginia Department of Emergency Management has declared Nov. 30-Dec. 6 as Winter Preparedness Week and advises Virginians to get prepared for the upcoming months.
“It’s been eight years since we’ve had a big winter storm, which is a long time even by Virginia standards,“ Michael Cline, state coordinator for the Virginia Department of Emergency Managament, said.  “It’s critical that every family get ready for winter dangers such as power outages and slippery roads.“
The department advises that residents get an emergency supply kit including: a battery-powered radio and extra batteries, food and water, flashlights and extra batteries, a first aid kit, blankets and warm clothing, medications if needed and pet supplies.  They also recommend that residents make a plan about what to do in case severe weather hits and also to stay informed of possible winter weather conditions.  Virginia has also set up a website for more winter tips at http://www.ReadyVirginia.gov.
The melting of snow can cause the problems that make preparation necessary.  Snow usually has a 10-1 ratio meaning 10 inches of snow melts to 1 inch of water.  This can change with different types of snow.  Very wet snow can have a 6-1 ratio while powdery snow can have a 30-1 ratio.  While snow is relied upon to make up for the losses in ground water that occur during the summer months, too much water can be bad for pasture grasses.  In Virginia, the snow almost always melts over days, which, according to Starner, most likely decreases the quality of foliage.             
“Generally, ice storms are bad and snowfall is good,“ Starner said.  “It is good for crops to be covered in snow for as many days as possible but when the snow is melting down, dripping down constantly, refreezing and thawing again, this could cause damage to pasture grasses below it.“
However, not all snow is bad.  Like Bing Crosby, many people dream of a white Christmas every year.  Unfortunately, the chance of actually getting one in Orange County is small.
According to Starner, in the past 62 years, there have been only 10 winters with white Christmases, or rather snow on the ground during Christmas. 
Luckily, there’s always dreaming and a lot of wishing.  Should that fail, one might try the age-old snow dance of their younger years, which school age children have been known to rely on before a big test.