Population projected at 34,127 in 2010

By Gracie Hart
Review Staff Writer

Published: November 26, 2008

In 1990, 21,421 people lived in Orange County.  Ten years later, the US Census Bureau reported 25,881 people lived in the county and it is estimated that the population will increase 31 percent to 34,127 by 2010.  The most recent estimate, taken in 2007, found that there were 32,492 people in the county already. 
“The population growth has been dramatic,“ county administrator Bill Rolfe said.  “It is something that the county hasn’t experienced in a while.“
According to data from USA Counties IN Profile, which provides current federal statistics on a variety of demographic and economic indicators, Orange County ranked 17th out of 134 counties in Virginia for population growth between 1990 and 2007 with a growth percentage of 51.7.  Out of other counties in the area, Culpeper ranked 11th with 64.5 percent growth and Greene ranked 7th with 73.4 percent growth.  Madison has much slower growth ranking 69th with only 14.8 percent growth between 1990 and 2007. 
The migration change between 2006 and 2007 is also contributing to the area’s growth.  Orange County was ranked 13th out of 134 counties in Virginia for migration change between 2006 and 2007 with 780 people migrating into the county.  Culpeper was ranked 7th with 1,132 people migrating in, Greene and Madison were both ranked 55th with only 138 people migrating into each county.  Natural increase in 2007 in Orange County, which comes from more births than deaths within the county, was 128 people. 
The impending growth by 2010 also reflects growth in the ethnic groups within the county.  According to the 2000 census, there were 21,833 whites, 3,566 African-Americans, 88 Asians, 330 Hispanics/Latinos and 336 other or multi-race people within the county.  By 2010, these numbers are expected to jump to 28,587 whites, 4,702 African-Americans, 152 Asians, and 643 Hispanics/Latinos living within the county. 
So where does all of this growth leave Orange County and its residents? 
According to Rolfe, the school system has felt the growth the most and faces additional space needs.  Mobile classrooms are located at many of the schools and the county is in the early stages of building an additional middle school to accommodate the growing student population.
Rolfe states that the growth, which he states has been predominately in the eastern end of the county, seems to be slowing down to a more manageable rate.
“There was a growth trend between 2000 and 2007,“ he said.  “There was a big boom in 2005.“
Recently departed school superintendent Dr. William Crawford also said that the growth has slowed down.
“We are only 93 students off on our student estimates for this year so for the most part, it is where we expected it to be,“ he said.  “We still need additional middle school space, especially since the fifth grade has been moved to Locust Grove Middle School.“
Schools are not the only thing being affected by the growth.  With more people comes more need for county services, including fire and rescue services.
“As the population goes up, we get more calls for those services,“ Rolfe said.  “We have to provide more services because there are more people.“
According to Rolfe, the county had added part-time help to assist in providing those services and assisting with filing building permits and documents.  However, the need for part-time help has receeded because of the bleak economy.
According to the 2000 census, there were 11,354 housing units in the county, 1,204 of which were vacant and 2,328 of which were renter-occupied.  As the growth hit its peak in 2005, so did the number of residential building permits.
“Requests for housing permits were high in 2005,“ Rolfe said.
There were 499 additional housing units between July 2004 and July 2005.  In the following year, 683 more housing units popped up.
In 2007, 329 residential building permits were filed, all for single-family homes.  In the same year, the census estimated that there were 14,255 housing units within the county.  The building has since slowed down.
“On a drive around the county, I see more [houses] for rent than I’ve ever seen,“ Rolfe said.  “People can’t make their mortgage payments due to the economy so they are doing whatever they can.“
The unemployment rate has also seen growth, going from 3.2 percent in 2007 to 5 percent in August of 2008. 
“We’ve had a loss of several key employers over the last 12 months but we are still doing fairly well,“ Rolfe said.  “We will probably continue to see a rise [in the unemployment rate] due to national trends.“
For the most part though, no major steps are needed to accommodate the population growth.
“There is no need for major accommodations,“ Rolfe said.  “The things that are being done now to roads and other needs are resulting from the way that those things were done in the 70s.“
One thing is clear: if the population keeps growing and the economy keeps spiraling, the county may need to look at accommodation options but for now, officials remain optimistic.
“It is all because we are too close to northern Virginia,“ Rolfe said.